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Most common price: £28 (75 days, 100.0%)

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Description

This thesis presents an integrated mathematical approach to quantify and simulate the impact of climate change on water security, focusing on the flood-prone Budalangi region in Kenya's Lake Victoria Basin. The research formulates a hybrid SWAT-SEIR model, combining hydrological processes and epidemiological frameworks, to capture the dynamic interactions between climate variables, water availability and contamination events. By incorporating climate-driven precipitation and temperature data, as well as observed hydrological records, the study models scenarios of increasing droughts, floods and water quality degradation. The thesis applies the fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method for numerically solving systems of differential equations governing climate and water system dynamics, ensuring stability and accuracy. Analysis includes positivity and boundedness of solutions, the basic reproduction number, stability equilibrium, sensitivity indices and bifurcation analysis to assess thresholds between contamination-free and endemic states. Findings highlight significant risks posed by irregular rainfall and rising temperatures, with seasonal variations in contaminant spread and water scarcity pinpointed through validation against empirical data. Results reveal that climate change exacerbates water scarcity and contamination during extreme weather events, threatening local livelihoods, food security and public health. The research demonstrates that integrated models are vital for predicting regime shifts, supporting adaptive strategies and sustainable water management. Recommendations target policy interventions, improved watershed governance, climate-resilient infrastructure and efficient use of hydrological data in vulnerable regions. The thesis ultimately contributes a robust framework applicable to similar African contexts facing water insecurity under changing climate regimes, and provides stakeholders with actionable insights for future adaptation and mitigation planning.

Product Specifications

Format: paperback
ASIN: B0G14J2Q2G
Category: Books > Subjects > Science, Nature & Maths > Experiments, Instruments & Measurements > Equipment & Techniques
Domain: Amazon UK
Release Date: 04 November 2025
Listed Since: 06 November 2025

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Mathematical Modeling of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Security: A Case Study of Budalangi in Lake Victoria Basin

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Mathematical Modeling of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Security: A Case Study of Budalangi in Lake Victoria Basin

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