Routledge Improving Global Health: Forecasting the Next 50 Years: 03 (Patterns of Potential Human Progress)

Improving Global Health is the third in a series of volumes-Patterns of Potential Human Progress-that uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development: how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. Earlier volumes addressed the reduction of global poverty and the advance of global education. Volume 3 sets out to tell a story of possible futures for the health of peoples across the world. Questions the volume addresses include: -What health outcomes might we expect given current patterns of human development? -What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures? -How might improved health futures affect broader economic, social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world? Review “The volume is very, very impressive. It’s clearly one of the most complete and thorough explorations of global health in a single volume. There is no doubt that the authors have a sophisticated understanding of the main drivers of global health and how they interact.” --Sam Preston, Fredrick J. Warren Professor of Demography, University of Pennsylvania “A fascinating and careful presentation of the value and methods of modeling future global health scenarios. This volume can serve a wide range of purposes and inform numerous analyses about optimal health resource allocations, macroeconomic conditions and prospects, and opportunities for investments in health.” --Rachel Nugent, Deputy Director of Global Health, Center for Global Development “This is a well-researched and thoughtful document that gives a very good overview of what is known about trends in global health and mortality, their drivers, and the various issues and approaches to forecasting health and its impacts.” --Colin D. Mathers, Mortality and Burden of Disease Coordinator, Department of Health Statistics and Informatics, World Health Organization, and a founding leader of WHO’s Global Burden of Disease project. “These are important arguments and discussions about things I know something about; they are on target and highly useful. More importantly, there are some new insights I hadn't considered before and these are even more relevant.” --Gerald T. Keusch, Professor of Medicine and International Health and Special Assistant for Global Health to the University President, Boston University “The authors are to be congratulated on having undertaken so systematically such a huge and challenging task. It is very useful for the rest of us.” --Jere R. Behrman, William R, Kenan Jr. Professor of Economics and Sociology, University of Pennsylvania “The long-term, country-level projections are a good supplement to the World Bank Group’s 2006 Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors report and the policy analysis adds a helpful new perspective on population health trends. Recommended.” --CHOICE September 2011 Vol 49. No. 01 About the Author Barry B. Hughes is Professor of International Relations in the Graduate School of International Studies at the University of Denver. Randall Kuhn is Assistant Professor and Director of the Global Health Affairs Program at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. His research in Bangladesh, South Africa, and Sri Lanka explores the effects of economic, political, and demographic forces on health and well-being, along with the pathways from health to societal change. Cecilia Mosca Peterson is a doctoral candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Building on her background in biostatistics and public health, her research interests are focused on modeling long-term health outcomes. Dr. Dale S. Rothman is a research associate and adjunct faculty with the Josef Korbel School of International Studies. He has extensive experience in the exploration of lo