Cambridge University Press Quagmire in Civil War

Our understanding of civil war is shot through with the spectre of quagmire, a situation that traps belligerents, compounding and entrenching war's dangers. Despite the subject's importance, its causes are obscure. A pervasive 'folk' notion that quagmire is intrinsic to certain countries or wars has foreclosed inquiry, and scholarship has failed to identify quagmire as an object of study in its own right. Schulhofer-Wohl provides the first treatment of quagmire in civil war. In a rigorous but accessible analysis, he explains how quagmire can emerge from domestic-international interactions and strategic choices. To support the argument, Schulhofer-Wohl draws upon field research on Lebanon's sixteen-year civil war, structured comparisons with civil wars in Chad and Yemen, and rigorous statistical analyses of all civil wars worldwide fought between 1944 and 2006. The results make clear that the 'folk' notion misdiagnoses quagmire and demand that we revisit policies that rest upon it. Schulhofer-Wohl demonstrates that quagmire is made, not found. Review 'This brilliant and erudite book, the outcome of assiduous and painstaking research, pulls together the premises underlying the heuristic metaphor of Quagmire. It is a master stroke. Destined, in my view, to become a landmark, a tour de force, even a classic for the analysis of civil wars in their diverse origins and manifestations. Like other classics, Professor Schulhofer-Wohl offers an enlightened theoretical paradigm, grounded empirical fieldwork, sustained by compelling prose. Equally appealing, he adopts a multilayered approach that draws on both internationally and domestically-centered perspectives to analyze the strategic interactions between foreign states and internal warring parties. In short, to understand how belligerents become entrapped in civil wars.' Samir Khalaf, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, American University of Beirut'It is sometimes said that powers 'find' themselves bogged down in quagmires. In this lucidly written work, Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl argues that 'quagmires are made, not found.' Schulhofer-Wohl shows just how foreign backers and belligerents make quagmires through the interaction of their strategic choices. Quagmire in Civil War is not only a significant contribution to our understanding of why some civil wars become prolonged, but also an important work adding to our comprehension of the preferences and interlocking strategic choices of external and domestic actors in civil war in general.' Roger Petersen, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology'Professor Schulhofer-Wohl penetrates deeply into the question of why some - but not all - civil wars entrap governments, rebels, and foreign backers. Quagmire's analysis sheds light on Syria's civil war after 2011. It explains why both pro-government and rebel forces often fell back to non-territorial warfare between 2014 and 2016 and why the balance shifted in favor of Asad when Russia especially escalated to back the Syrian government's move for costly territorial control and rebel backers declined to match the escalation. Aspiring policymakers need to go beyond simplistic descriptions of the evolution of civil wars to consider Schulhofer-Wohl's analysis about how decisions by different actors can together produce outcomes not originally foreseen or intended by any side in a civil war.' Robert S. Ford, US Ambassador to Syria, 2011–2014'In this magisterial book, Schulhofer-Wohl takes on a big question: Why do some civil wars become 'quagmires' while others do not? His innovative answer points to the strategic structure of a conflict and associated decision-making problems for the warring parties and their potential foreign backers. Moving research on civil wars in new directions, he brings conceptual rigor to the notion of a civil war quagmire and highlights key mechanisms leading to their emergence. His rigorous empi