Oxford University Press From Dissent to Democracy: The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Transitions

Product Description Peaceful protest is a strong driver for democratization across the globe. Yet, it doesn't always lead to democratic transition, as seen in the Arab Spring revolutions in Egypt or Yemen. Why do some nonviolent transitions end in democracy while others do not? In From Dissent to Democracy, Jonathan Pinckney systematically examines transitions initiated by nonviolent resistance campaigns and argues that two key factors explain whether or not democracy will follow such efforts. First, a movement must sustain high levels of social mobilization. Second, it must direct that mobilization away from revolutionary "maximalist" goals and tactics and towards support for new institutions. Pinckney tests his theory by presenting a global statistical analysis of all political transitions from 1945-2011 and three case studies from Nepal, Zambia, and Brazil. Original and empirically rigorous, this book provides new insights into the intersection of democratization and nonviolent resistance and gives actionable recommendations for how to encourage democratic transitions. Review Mass protests frequently drive democratization. But as the Arab Spring demonstrated, not all such mobilizations result in successful transitions to democratic rule; many such movements are successfully squashed. Combining high-quality statistical work as well as case studies of Brazil, Nepal and Zambia, Pinckney lands on some crucial lessons. To hold both autocrats and their successors accountable, mass mobilization must be sustained into the democratic era. But it also must ultimately be transformed into organized opposition to remain effective. Both of these tasks are hard, but as his cases show the second is particularly challenging. ― Stephan Haggard, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, University of California San Diego and author (with Robert Kaufman) of Dictators and Democrats: Masses, Elites and Regime Change We know a lot about when and how civil resisters overturn incumbent political regimes. Yet up until now, we have known little about why some nonviolent revolutions consolidate democracy while others fail to do so. In an empirically rich analysis, Jonathan Pinckney examines this important but surprisingly neglected topic. From Dissent to Democracy significantly advances our understanding of post-uprising factors that shape the long-term trajectories of nonviolent revolutions. ― Sharon Erickson Nepstad, Distinguished Professor of Sociology, University of New Mexico and author of Nonviolent Struggle: Theories, Strategies, and Dynamics About the Author Jonathan C. Pinckney is a Program Officer in the Program on Nonviolent Action at the United States Institute of Peace. He received his PhD in 2018 from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.