The 2016 Import and Export Market for Soybean Oil and Its Fractions in China

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on soybean oil and its fractions in China face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying soybean oil and its fractions to China? How important is China compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of soybean oil and its fractions vary from one country of origin to another in China? On the supply side, China also exports soybean oil and its fractions. Which countries receive the most exports from China? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for soybean oil and its fractions in China. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for soybean oil and its fractions for those countries serving China via exports, or supplying from China via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where China fits into the world market for imported and exported soybean oil and its fractions. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for China in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then