The 2013 Import and Export Market for Unmilled Durum Wheat in Italy

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on unmilled durum wheat in Italy face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying unmilled durum wheat to Italy? How important is Italy compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of unmilled durum wheat vary from one country of origin to another in Italy? On the supply side, Italy also exports unmilled durum wheat. Which countries receive the most exports from Italy? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for unmilled durum wheat in Italy. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for unmilled durum wheat for those countries serving Italy via exports, or supplying from Italy via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Italy fits into the world market for imported and exported unmilled durum wheat. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for Italy in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead