Springer Applied Intelligent Systems: New Directions: 153 (Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, 153)

Humans have always been hopeless at predicting the future…most people now generally agree that the margin of viability in prophecy appears to be 1 ten years. Even sophisticated research endeavours in this arena tend to go 2 off the rails after a decade or so. The computer industry has been particularly prone to bold (and often way off the mark) predictions, for example: ‘I think there is a world market for maybe five computers’ Thomas J. Watson, IBM Chairman (1943), ‘I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year’ Prentice Hall Editor (1957), ‘There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home’ Ken Olsen, founder of DEC (1977) and ‘640K ought to be enough for anybody’ Bill Gates, CEO Microsoft (1981). 3 The field of Artificial Intelligence – right from its inception – has been particularly plagued by ‘bold prediction syndrome’, and often by leading practitioners who should know better. AI has received a lot of bad press 4 over the decades, and a lot of it deservedly so. How often have we groaned in despair at the latest ‘by the year-20xx, we will all have…(insert your own particular ‘hobby horse’ here – e. g.