£46.99

Springer Simple Modelle für komplexe Diagnoseprobleme?: Zur Robustheit probabilistischer Diagnoseverfahren gegenüber vereinfachenden Modellannahmen: 21 (Lehr- und Forschungstexte Psychologie, 21)

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Description

Die vorliegende Arbeit setzt sich mit dem Problem grob vereinfachender Annahmen bei formalen Diagnoseverfahren auseinander. die zur Unter stOtzung der intuitiven Urteilsbildung bzw. zur Vermeidung intuitiver Urteilsfehler entwickelt wurden. Damit solI keineswegs gegen den Ein satz formalisierter Verfahren argumentiert werden. Angesichts der rapiden Entwicklung der Dokumentationstechnologie. die den Einsatz formalisierter Verfahren der Informationsaggregation als Grundlage einer rationalen Urteilsbildung nicht nur nahelegt. sondern vermutlich erzwingen wird. drangt sich jedoch die Frage auf. ob grob vereinfa chen de Annahmen. die in der Entwicklungsphase bzw. im Rahmen der experimentellen Erprobung formalisierter Verfahren zumeist unter dem Gesichtspunkt der Praktikabilitat eingefOhrt wurden. auch dann noch vertretbar sind. wenn es urn die praktische Anwendung solcher Verfahren mit moglicherweise gravierenden Konsequenzen geht. Ich danke Herrn Prof. Dr. Martin Irle und Herrn Prof. Dr. Ralf Schae fer fOr die kritische Kommentierung des Manuskriptes. die wesentlich zur jetzt vorliegenden Fassung beigetragen hat. 1m folgenden wird ein kurzer Oberblick Ober den Inhalt der einzelnen Kapitel gegeben. der zur Orientierung des Lesers hilfreich sein mag. In den beiden ersten Kapiteln wird der Grundgedanke formaler Entschei dungshilfeverfahren skizziert. und ihre Notwendigkeit mit der zuneh menden Diskrepanz zwischen der begrenzten Informationsverarbeitungsfa higkeit des Menschen und den steigenden Anforderungen begrOndet. die die immer raschere technologische Entwicklung an ihn stellt.

Product Specifications

Format
paperback
Domain
Amazon UK
Release Date
01 August 1986
Listed Since
25 March 2010

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