Ukraine and European Security (Chatham House Papers)

A politically stable Ukraine at peace with its neighbours is essential for European security. This study analyzes the most frequently voiced concerns in Europe over Ukraine's independence: the evolution of democracy, the potential of ethnic Russian-based anti-independence mobilization, and the troubled Ukrainian-Russian relationship. After outlining the main political developments in Ukraine since 1991 the author discusses two potential challenges: the standing of anti-democratic political forces and the possibility of military involvement in politics. He assesses the likelihood of separatism in eastern and southern Ukraine and Crimea, and pressures for reintegration with Russia. He analyzes key issues of controversy in Ukrainian-Russian relations, as well as Ukraine's relations with its other neighbours, and considers alternative scenarios for future ties between Moscow and Kiev. A range of sources is used to identify how far the political and foreign policy stability of Ukraine is likely to be reinforced