Stanford University Press Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century: Volume 2 A Comparative Perspective

This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so. Review Students, academics, and, yes, practitioners will find much to admire in the analysis contained in both volumes . . . The two volumes add to a rich qualitative literature on proliferation, while applying rigorous quantitative analysis to proliferation cases. The contributing factors for proliferation are widely acknowledged and include domestic drivers, economic and security concerns, as well as regime and leadership types . . . The two-volume set on Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century is helpful in many valuable ways. There are sound analytical reasons for concluding that, despite the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, the sky is not falling, nor is it likely to fall over the next decade.--Michael Krepon " Nonproliferation Review" This impressive--nearly 800 pages--collective study aims at taking a fresh look at the causes of nuclear proliferation, with the goal of enhancing the ability of analysts and policymakers to forecast its future and improve its prevention. It effectively combines quantitative and qualitative approaches, and includes a systematic review of the literature, from the early studies of proliferation dynamics of the 1960s to the latest statistical analyses of the past decade, as well as a range of case studies that goes beyond the 'usual suspects' to include Australia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia.--Bruno Tertrais " Survival" This volume contains 12 case studies and offers many insights into the decision-making processes in the countries studied. It will be invaluable to those interested in proliferation analysis, and to students and researchers.--T.V. Paul, James McGill Professor of International Relations "McGill University" About the Author William C. Potter is Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova is a Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.